How Likely Are You?

Polls are coming thick and fast on Kentucky's U.S. Senate race, and a pattern is emerging though it's not the one you think it is.

Rand Paul's up by 15!

Nope, Jack Conway's within 3!

Wait - Paul's up by 15 again!

Nope, Conway and Paul are tied!

And that's just this week.

Here's the pattern: the polls showing Conway close, slightly ahead or tied are polls of registered voters. The polls showing Paul ahead by double-digits are polls of likely voters.

In other words, Conway supporters are a bunch of lazy-ass, apathetic wastes of oxygen who can't be bothered to spend five minutes casting a vote in a nation-changing election.

Or, Jack Conway is a lazy-ass, apathetic waste of oxygen who can't be bothered to give actual Democratic voters a reason to vote for him.

Or both.

So that's it: the votes are there for Jack Conway. Half the electorate prefers Conway to Paul for U.S. Senate. But they don't prefer him enough to actually cast a vote for him.

Could it be because he wants to explode the deficit by keeping criminally low tax rates for the obscenely wealthy 2 percent of Americans, of whom there are maybe 14 in the entire state of Kentucky?

Or because he's eager to sacrifice yet more generations of impoverished Kentuckians to the giant fiery maw of Big Coal?

Or maybe it's because Kentucky voters are sick and fucking tired of yet another election in which our only choice is between the real republican and the fake republican.

Cross-posted at They Gave Us A Republic ....