Conway Still Searching Where the Votes Aren't

Remember that old joke about the guy crawling around on the ground near a street light? Another guy stops and asks him what he's doing. First guy says, I lost my keys. Second guy says, where'd you lose them? First guy points down the street - over there. Second guy: so why are you looking over here? First guy: the light's better here.

We finally have a poll of likely voters that shows Jack Conway within single digits of Rand Paul.

Daily Kos/PPP:

The race is still engaged, but these results show us just how tough Kentucky is. Obama has a 37-60 approval rating in the state, including a weak 60-37 among Democrats (many of whom are social conservatives more than happy to vote Republican). Indeed, while the sample is 49 percent Democratic and 39 percent Republican, it's also 53 percent McCain voters and 40 percent Obama voters. It's that kind of state.

Now Conway is holding Obama supporters, but Paul is holding McCain voters, and there's lost more of those. In fact, Conway's deficit comes at the hand of those who consider themselves most conservative, since the Democrat's lead among liberals is 84-10 and among moderates 60-29. It's that 14-78 deficit among conservatives that's killing him.

SNIP

The Democrats’ problem in Kentucky isn’t the enthusiasm gap- Rand Paul took care of that for us. It’s because after showing some wariness earlier in the summer, when we had the race tied, the McCain voters have pretty much all gone home to Paul. In late June he was getting 70% of their votes and now for all his missteps he’s getting 80% of their votes. In a state that went as strongly Republican last time as Kentucky Conway is going to have to be able to pick off more of their voters than that to have a path to victory.

Wrong, wronger, wrongest.

We have a name for people who voted for McCain/Palin: republicans. Sure, in Kentucky thousands of 'em are registered Democratic, so they can fuck with the Democratic primary, but they are republicans who vote for republicans and who will never, never, ever vote for a Democratic candidate under any circumstances whatsoever, including massive bribes and unbearable torture.

That 7-point-gap among likely voters means that there are still thousands of registered real Democrats who think it's a waste of time to vote for a Democratic nominee who is running as a repug-lite.

I'm starting to see their point. Conway phone bank scenario:

"Hello, Mr. Jackson? This is the Jack Conway for Senate campaign calling to remind you to vote on election day November 2."

"Remind all you want, young man, I ain't doin' it."

"But Jack Conway's opponent is Rand Paul, who wants to repeal the Civil Rights Act, eliminate federal anti-drug grants and kill Social Security."

"Yep, Rand Paul's crazier 'n a shithouse rat, alright, but that just makes him the last honest republican. Jack Conway wants to give millions of my tax dollars to those rich fuckers on Wall Street. That makes him a traitor to the Democratic Party. I've been voting Democratic since decades before you were born, and I've seen a lot of assholes with a D beside their names, but Jack Conway is the first one to actually campaign on a promise to take money away from working people and give it to millionaire parasites."

Whatta ya say, Jack? How about going after votes where the Democratic ones are?

Cross-posted at They Gave Us A Republic ....