Not Even Iraq Got This Bad

As of 6 p.m., the death toll is 278.

Down with Tyranny:

U.S. law states that if a democratically-elected government is overthrown in a military coup, U.S. aid stops until democracy is restored. After the Egyptian military coup against Morsi, Congress and Obama were complicit in breaking the law, while U.S. corporate media cheered. So who will arrest them all?

Californians were bedding down when the killing started. In DC everyone was fast asleep. In Europe people were just having their morning coffee. A speaker on stage in Raba'a pleaded with the army: "Don't kill us, we are not Israelis, we're not terrorists, we are Muslims, we are Egyptians." It didn't work. The massacre began, all entrances to and exits from the area carefully sealed with barbed wire, snipers strategically placed on rooftops. Early Wednesday morning, the Egyptian security forces made a move that has been anticipated all week-- they started murdering unarmed pro-Morsi protesters in Cairo-- with weapons U.S. aid provides them. The Nobel Peace Prize Committee should be especially proud of their premature award to Obama now. Corporate media reports made it sound a lot tamer than it was:

Egyptian security forces have begun clearing two protest camps in Cairo occupied by supporters of deposed President Mohammed Morsi.

Reports say 15 people have been killed as police cut off side streets and bursts of gunfire were heard.

Teargas is being fired and helicopters flew overhead as security forces moved on the camps in the east and west of the city.

...The interior ministry issued a statement saying security forces were taking "necessary measures" against the protest at the Rabaa al-Adawiya mosque in the east of Cairo and the protest in Nahda Square in the east.

Hundreds have been arrested and Egypt's rail system has been suspended and major highways into Cairo shut down to keep sympathizers from coming to the capital to help the penned-up protesters. Journalists are being brutalized and arrested by the security forces as well, of course. Egypt has an official story it wants to get out-- like "a policeman was killed," rather than the real story: hundreds of protesters were slaughtered and thousands injured-- and independent journalists are a nuisance. There are reports though that protests have flared up in Alexandria, Suez and Aswan.

The ministry announced protesters would not be hunted down and murdered like dogs, indicating, of course, that the military planned out an operation that included hunting down protesters and murdering them like dogs. Al Jazeera was reporting that bulldozers plowed into the camps. "Many people are being killed right now... What we can expect is only worse," said Laila, a member of Egypt's Anti-Coup Alliance, a pro-Morsi group. "What's happening now is a crime against humanity."

I've been following the discussion via #egypt on Twitter for the last several hours and shocked by the number of people who say "there are two sides to every story" as the security apparatus systematically massacres the protesters in a well-planned military operation. I'm not even talking about the myriad Egyptian coup stooges pushing state propaganda-- just the kinds of sad sacks who always say that kind of stuff about whatever happens anywhere. I learned long ago and now know better than to ever take any "official" description of events at face value. There is a reason the military immediately targeted the media today. They do not want any independent verification of their brutality and aggression. As for "pro-Morsi" forces on the attack-- or burning Coptic churches-- I'd be far more likely to look for Sisi agents provacateurs. And by the way, anyone heard from the last elected president of Egypt recently. Is he alive?

The West made a big mistake-- for which it is still paying dearly-- by pushing a coup against Iran's popular prime minister, Mohamed Mossadeq 60 years ago. Didn't the U.S. security apparatus learn anything from that unmitigated disaster. Does Obama understand what he's doing by siding with the military against Egypt's people? And now the military dictatorship has declared a state of emergency-- suspension of due process, martial law, ability to kill protesters with impunity-- for a month, which had something to do with the Arab Spring... since people were upset that Hosni Mubarak's state of emergency lasted 30 years.

Americans like democracy... at least in theory. When the results don't synch up with U.S. (i.e., corporate) interests-- screw democracy, especially in American client states! It would be so mean and paranoid to even think that Obama sent McCain and his sidekick Lindsey to Cairo to give Sisi the greenlight for today's massacre. Oh well, at least no one is being shot down like dogs in North Carolina... yet.

Somewhere in the bowels of the State Department, there's an Egypt expert who spent the last year begging Hilary Clinton and President Obama to use our monetary control over the Eygptian military to stop the slow strangulation of President Morsi's government and give democracy a chance to work.

Right now he's extremely drunk, glued to Al-Jazeera and sobbing "I told them this would happen. I told them this would happen."

What Would 125 Million Americans Protesting Look Like?

Maybe like this:



Divine Irony:

Over 33,000,000 people are standing in the streets as they have been for days and their act of valor is unprecedented in the history of mankind and yet no one is talking about it

Egypt's population is 82.54 million. 33 million is 40 percent of the entire population.

The U.S. population is 310 million. 40 percent of that is 125.5 million. What would it take to get 125.5 million Americans out into the streets, day after day, to protest?

How Soccer Rioters Could Restore Democracy in Egypt

You never know what's going to seize the popular imagination and inspire broad political movements. An impoverished peddlar committing suicide in Tunisia. Two girls getting pepper-sprayed in New York City. A middle-aged woman keeping her seat on a bus.

A soccer riot in Egypt.

Dave Zirin at The Nation:

There are no words for the horror that took place in Port Said, Egypt last week. A soccer match became a killing field, with at least seventy-four spectators dead, and as many as 1,000 injured. The visiting Al-Ahly team lost to Al-Masri, and what followed will stain the sport forever. Al-Masri fans rushed the field, attacking the Al-Ahly cheering section after Al-Masri's 3-1 upset victory. People were stabbed and beaten to death, but the majority of lives lost took place because of asphyxiation as Al-Ahly fans were crushed against locked stadium doors. It was so unspeakably traumatic that beloved Al-Ahly star, Mohamed Aboutreika, who famously revealed a "Sympathize with Gaza" shirt during the 2008 Israel bombardment, immediately announced his retirement after the match. A distraught Aboutreika said, "This is not football. This is a war and people are dying in front of us. There is no movement and no security and no ambulances. I call for the league to be canceled. This is a horrible situation, and today can never be forgotten."

This carnage, however, has produced profoundly unexpected results. The shock of Port Said hasn't produced a political coma, but instead acted as a defibrillator, bringing a revolutionary impatience back to life. Instead of starting a wave of concern that "lawlessness" was spreading in post-Revolutionary Egypt, the anger and sadness seem to be reviving the revolution. The Western media immediately used the shock of the tragedy to call for a crackdown on the hyper-intense fan clubs, the “ultras”. As the New York Times wrote, "The deadliest soccer riot anywhere in more than 15 years, it also illuminated the potential for savagery among the organized groups of die-hard fans known here as ultras who have added a volatile element to the street protests since Mr. Mubarak's exit."

Other Western observers, sympathetic to the revolution, feared with good cause that the riots would strengthen the hand of a military dictatorship slow to transfer power to civilian rule. But on the ground, a new reality quickly took shape. This might be news to the New York Times, but the reaction in Egypt has been rage at the military, fueled by a widespread belief that, either through benign neglect or malignant intent, the authorities let the killings happen.

The anger at that is so great, in fact, that it has subsumed the vicious competition between soccer club fans, known as "ultras."

Now not only are many Egyptians coming to the defense of the ultras, but, remarkably, ultra groups from opposing clubs have pledged to join forces, seeing the attack on Al-Ahly as an attack on all of them. Their unity was sparked when the Al-Ahly ultras themselves released a statement where they didn't go after Al-Masry but the military, proclaiming, "They want to punish us and execute us for our participation in the revolution against suppression." The ultras then vowed a "new war in defense of the revolution."

This proved to be more than just words. On Wednesday, February 1, the military leader Tantawi seemed blasé about the anguish, anger and accusations arising from Port Said, saying, "Egypt is going down the path we planned, We will continue down this path and we will get through this transition."

On Thursday, protests against military inactivity in the Port Said stadium deaths exploded in Cairo, Suez and Port Said itself. The clashes also marked the one year anniversary of the Battle of the Camels, when Mubarak sent armed thugs riding into Tahrir Square on camels and ultras had their most shining moment, credited with incredible bravery standing in their charging path and forcing them out of the square.

This year, in Cairo, at least 10,000 protesters marched to the Interior Ministry building near Tahrir Square. The battle that followed according to Health Ministry official Adel Adawi, resulted in 388 protesters' injuries. The flags unfurled were the ultra flags of traditional rivals, Al-Ahly and Zamalek.

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The reemergence of the ultra clubs as a united force against the military regime should send shivers from Cairo to Washington DC.

SNIP

There have been continuous efforts to marginalize the ultras. Now they are, unbelievably, on the center stage of history. The ultras have done nothing less than propel the Egyptian Revolution back into the Egyptian streets.

Occupiers broke some windows? Sounds to me like some windows needed to be broken.

From Tahrir to Oakland, in Solidarity

Remember back in February? When Egyptian protesters in Tahrir Square carried signs reading: "Egypt Supports Wisconsin Workers. One World, One People."

Egyptians know from police brutality, so they're supporting Occupy Oakland.

As they vowed earlier this week to do, Egyptian pro-democracy protesters marched from Tahrir square to the U.S. Embassy today to march in support of Occupy Oakland—and against the type of police brutality witnessed in Oakland on Tuesday night, and commonly experienced in Egypt.

In this post, photos from Egyptian blogger Mohammed Maree, who is there at the march live-tweeting these snapshots. He is a journalist with Egytimes.org, a human rights activist, and a veterinarian; all photos are his.

Click here to see the photos.

Protest Like An Egyptian.

"We're defending our revolution no matter what. No one can hijack it - no one."

Egyptian activist Gigi Ibrahim on the Daily Show:

Religion and Freedom

You have to wonder what the stammering incoherence on the part of the Reich Wing and freakazoids regarding the pro-democracy protests among mooslin terrists really reflects: Are they that blind to their own irrational authoritarianism, or is their cynicism and hypocrisy just not up to handling this much reality?

Via PZ Myers, Paula Kirby at WaPo explains:

Religion: the ultimate tyranny

In light of the continuing political uprising throughout the Middle East, American leaders are reported to be recalculating their approach to the Muslim world.

Politico's Ben Smith wrote this week that the Obama administration "clearly sees an opportunity," signaling "that they're hoping the changes in Tunisia and Egypt spread, and that they're going to align themselves far more clearly with the young, relatively secular masses" in countries like Iran, Algeria and Lebanon.

Is this a new moment for American relations with Muslim countries? Is freedom a religious or secular idea?

Is freedom a religious idea? As John McEnroe would have said, "You cannot be serious."

If you value freedom, you should flee from religion as the antelope flees the lion. Religion is the very antithesis of freedom, insisting on our complete subjugation to the unachievable demands of an invisible but supremely powerful overlord. Think of Islam, whose very name means 'submission'! Think of Christianity, which claims it is disobedience that brought original sin into the world, with all that entails in terms of suffering and injustice and even earthquakes and tsunamis. Imagine! To claim that human obedience is so imperative that the purposes of an omnipotent deity and the very fabric of the planet, if not the whole universe, depend upon it and can be catastrophically disrupted at the first whiff of rebellion - and then to claim that such a religion is the source of human freedom!

The Abrahamic god even enthusiastically endorses the vilest of all negations of freedom: slavery. In Leviticus 25, there is a direct quote from this supposedly perfect deity, specifically permitting the Israelites to take and keep slaves, the only proviso being that they must be from the neighboring tribes and not from their own people. Straight from the horse's mouth, as it were, and hardly a shining example of freedom as a religious ideal.

Religion delights in petty rules and the exercise of power over its followers. What theistic religion does not attempt to curtail believers' freedom with nonsensical decrees about foods that may or may not be eaten, fibers that may or may not be worn, days on which they may or may not work, coverings that must or must not be worn on their heads, books that must or must not be read, images that may or may not be created, words that may or may not be spoken, ideas they may or may not explore, actions they may or may not perform, rituals - whether physical or symbolic - they must perform in order to cleanse themselves of impurities of religion's own invention?

There is no aspect of our lives, no matter how intimate, which religion does not unblushingly insist on its right to control. Whom we may love, whom we may desire, with whom we may physically express those feelings: in such restrictions on our freedom religion is at its most insistent and intrusive. But it does not stop even here, for religion does not limit its control to our deeds or even words: no, the invisible Thought Police of religion do not scruple to pursue us even into the innermost recesses of our minds and there to stand ready to condemn us for our very thoughts. Not even the most heinous ruler or most brutal slave-owner ever achieved such extremes of tyranny; yet religion grants us no privacy, nowhere to hide, no freedom to entertain even a fleeting thought without its being immediately known to - and judged by - a cosmic dictator. Religion is the ultimate slavery: it is the slavery of the mind, slavery to the fear of divine judgment and damnation. The devilish irony consists in the fact that 'divine judgment' and 'damnation' are themselves the inventions of religion: religion creates and exquisitely perfects the fear, then cynically declares itself the sole and indispensable liberator from it.

And yet we are invited to credit religion as the source of true freedom? It is a laughable claim, a disgraceful claim, a claim that makes a mockery of language as well as of truth and of human dignity. As such it is on a par with other religious claims, such as those that define perfect forgiveness as something dependent on the barbaric sacrifice-by-crucifixion of an innocent man, perfect justice as consisting in the innocent being tortured to death so the guilty can be let off scot-free, and perfect love as something that would damn us to hell for all eternity if we refuse to accept such grotesque monstrosities as evidence of a perfect and loving god.

True freedom requires us to liberate ourselves from the tyranny of religion as well as from the tyranny of brutal earthly regimes. True freedom involves the freedom to think, to explore, to grow; the freedom to pursue knowledge and learning, wherever they lead; the freedom to be different, not to conform; freedom from bigotry; freedom from ignorance; freedom to love and to express that love as we choose; freedom to be ourselves, to accept ourselves, warts and all, and to accept others on the same terms; freedom to choose our own meaning and purpose in life, and to make our own decisions on the basis of those free choices; freedom to make mistakes; freedom to change our mind; freedom from fear, especially from phoney fears invented by those whose only aim is to control us in word, thought and deed.

Religion claims to set its followers free, while all the time holding them in thrall and insisting they kiss the hand of their jailer. There can be no true freedom so long as religion still keeps the human mind in shackles.

Makes the phrase "religious freedom" make more sense as "freedom from religion" rather than "freedom of religion," doesn't it?

Protest Like An Egyptian

Michael Moore has inspiring words from what may be the world's newest democracy:

Kamal Abbas is General Coordinator of the CTUWS, an umbrella advocacy organization for independent unions in Egypt. The CTUWS, which was awarded the 1999 French Republic's Human Rights Prize, suffered repeated harassment and attack by the Mubarak regime, and played a leading role in its overthrow. Abbas, who witnessed friends killed by the regime during the 1989 Helwan steel strike and was himself arrested and threatened numerous times, has received extensive international recognition for his union and civil society leadership.

KAMAL ABBAS: I am speaking to you from a place very close to Tahrir Square in Cairo, "Liberation Square", which was the heart of the Revolution in Egypt. This is the place were many of our youth paid with their lives and blood in the struggle for our just rights.

From this place, I want you to know that we stand with you as you stood with us.

I want you to know that no power can challenge the will of the people when they believe in their rights. When they raise their voices loud and clear and struggle against exploitation.

No one believed that our revolution could succeed against the strongest dictatorship in the region. But in 18 days the revolution achieved the victory of the people.

When the working class of Egypt joined the revolution on 9 and 10 February, the dictatorship was doomed and the victory of the people became inevitable.

We want you to know that we stand on your side. Stand firm and don't waiver. Don't give up on your rights. Victory always belongs to the people who stand firm and demand their just rights.

We and all the people of the world stand on your side and give you our full support.

As our just struggle for freedom, democracy and justice succeeded, your struggle will succeed. Victory belongs to you when you stand firm and remain steadfast in demanding your just rights.

We support you. we support the struggle of the peoples of Libya, Bahrain and Algeria, who are fighting for their just rights and falling martyrs in the face of the autocratic regimes. The peoples are determined to succeed no matter the sacrifices and they will be victorious.

Today is the day of the American workers. We salute you American workers! You will be victorious. Victory belongs to all the people of the world, who are fighting against exploitation, and for their just rights.

Click here for the video.

That's a message not just for the protesters in Wisconsin.

It's a message for the Democratic party politicians who have forgotten who they are and why they are Democrats.

It's a message for grassroots Democrats and liberals who have lost heart because the socialist we were promised turned out to be a corporate handmaiden.

Victory belongs to you when you stand firm and remain steadfast in demanding your just rights.

Picture of the Day

From Digby:

Day 3 of the New Egypt, brought to you live by Al Jazeera

The live blog is here.

The military promises elections - in six months. Not everyone is satisfied, and small groups of protesters continue to occupy Tahrir Square. Local police have now joined the numerous labor unions seeking raises and better working conditions.

In other words, the birth pangs of democracy.

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Day One of the New Egypt - Al Jazeera Has It Live

It's 1 a.m. in Cairo, five seven hours since Mubarak resigned, and the party is still going strong.

12:35am Palestinians in Gaza are waving Egyptian flags and chant 'Long live Egypt' in a rally of thousands to celebrate
Mubarak's resignation.

12:00am Mubarak is gone - missed it? Go back to our live blog from February 11- we will continue to bring you reactions to this from Egypt and all over the world.

Demand Al Jazeera English on your cable or satellite system. Click here and type in your zip code to send an email directly to your television provider.

A New Day in Egypt; A New Al Jazeera Live Blog

Barely an hour before the beginning of Day 18 of pro-democracy demonstrations in Egypt, dictator Mubarak turned celebrations into fury by announcing he would not step down.

Follow events here.

12:21am Israeli defence minister Ehud Barak responding to a question about Mubarak refusing to step down:

We should not pretend that we are more important than for the Egyptian people than their own interests. I don't think I have to respond to this. It's up to the Egyptian people to find a way and do it according to their own constitution, norms and practices.

12:03am In reaction to Mubarak's speech French president Sarkozy says:

I hope Egypt gets a democracy, not an Iran-style religious dictatorship.

Aljazeera English correspondent in Cairo thanks U.S. viewers:



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Earlier today, a rainbow in the Cairo sky this afternoon seemed like it might be a good omen.

A New Day in Egypt; A New Aljazeera Live Blog

Day 17 of pro-democracy, anti-Mubarak protests began an hour ago. Follow events as they happen here.

12:05am Protesters remain camped out on the streets of Cairo as worker walk-outs contribute to the wave of discontent in Egypt.

From yesterday's live blog, just over two hours ago:

10:44pm There's a candlelight vigil going on at Tahrir Square tonight, in memory of those who have been killed in the 16 days of protest.

And here's a photo of the huge protests Tuesday:



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A New Day in Egypt; A New Aljazeera Live Blog

As Day 16 of pro-democracy, anti-Mubarak protests begins, life is beginning to get back to normal in Cairo and other cities. The last days of protests passed with no opposition from pro-government protests, the despised secret police or the Army.

The Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition groups have agreed to negotiate with vice-president and former CIA asset Suleiman, but Mubarak remains in power.

Keep track here.

12:30am Omar Suleiman, Egypt's vice president, has said that Egypt currently lacks the necessary "culture of democracy" for the changes demanded by protesters.

The White House press secretary Robert Gibbs called his comments "particularly unhelpful".

12:05am Al Jazeera correspondent explains why Egyptian democracy will not come free of charge.

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A New Day in Egypt; A New Aljazeera Live Blog

Day 15 of pro-democracy, anti-Mubarak protests began about 90 minutes ago. The live blog is here.

12:08AM Wael Ghonim, head of Google's Middle East operations, has been released by Egyptian security forces. He spoke to Mona al Shazly on DreamTV about his ordeal.

Twitter user and journalist @SultanAlQassemi live blogged the interview - find his translation of the broadcast with Wael Ghonim below the videos.

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A New Day in Egypt: A New Aljazeera Live Blog

Day 12 of pro-democracy, anti-Mubarak protests began almost wo hours ago. The live blog is here.

12:06am: After a day of tension with the military trying to remove barricades set up by the protesters, one Al Jazeera correspondent says that things are relatively calm - more so than last night - as the crowd hunkers down in the rainy night in the Egyptian capital, Cairo.

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"Why fear the Arab revolutionary spirit?"

Via Aljazeera:

Slavoj Žižek, writing for the Guardian, takes on the “breathtaking” hypocrisy of western liberals in prioritising stability over democracy in the Arab world.

"Why fear the Arab revolutionary spirit?"

Here, then, is the moment of truth: one cannot claim, as in the case of Algeria a decade ago, that allowing truly free elections equals delivering power to Muslim fundamentalists. Another liberal worry is that there is no organised political power to take over if Mubarak goes. Of course there is not; Mubarak took care of that by reducing all opposition to marginal ornaments, so that the result is like the title of the famous Agatha Christie novel, And Then There Were None. The argument for Mubarak – it's either him or chaos – is an argument against him.

The hypocrisy of western liberals is breathtaking: they publicly supported democracy, and now, when the people revolt against the tyrants on behalf of secular freedom and justice, not on behalf of religion, they are all deeply concerned. Why concern, why not joy that freedom is given a chance? Today, more than ever, Mao Zedong's old motto is pertinent: "There is great chaos under heaven – the situation is excellent."

Where, then, should Mubarak go? Here, the answer is also clear: to the Hague. If there is a leader who deserves to sit there, it is him.

Click here and scroll down to 9:47 p.m. for the video interview.

At Nightfall and Curfew in Egypt

From Aljazeera's Live Blog:

11:36am On a light note, Walk like an Egyptian gets a new meaning in this image posted on Twitpic by rania_hafez:

A New Day in Egypt; A New Aljazeera Live Blog

Follow events here.

12:23am: The head of Al Jazeera Arabic's bureau in Cairo and another journalist have been detained in the Egyptian capital. Details soon...

12:00am: Protests that have rocked Egypt are moving into a twelfth day.

Anti-government demonstrators are still demanding an immediate end to Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule, but the president insists he will stay on until September.

Meanwhile, state television is reporting that the government has eased the night time curfew, shortening it by three hours - though the curfew has largely been ignored by protesters who remain in Cairo's Tahrir square.

No gunfire or petrol bombs so far tonight - that's an improvement over last night.

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New Day in Egypt; New Aljazeera Live Blog

Find the latest here.

It's 1:30 a.m. Friday in Egypt - first day of the weekend. Monster protests are planned for today.

How Egypt Is Not Iran

From Mideast expert Professor Juan Cole:

Alarms have been raised by those observing the popular uprising in Egypt that, while it is not itself a Muslim fundamentalist movement, the Muslim fundamentalists could take it over as it unfolds. The best-positioned group to do so is the Muslim Brotherhood. Some are even conflating the peaceful Brotherhood with radical groups such as al-Qaeda. I showed in my recent book, Engaging the Muslim World, that the Muslim Brotherhood has since the 1970s opposed the radical movements. In any case, the analogy many of these alarmists are making, explicitly or implicitly, is to Iran in 1978-79, which saw similar scenes of massive crowds in the street, demanding the departure of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, their king.

SNIP

So to recapitulate. The white collar and labor activists are far more central to the organization of the Egyptian protests than had been their counterparts in the Iranian Revolution. The Egyptian “bazaar” is much less tied to the Muslim clergy than was the case in Iran, and far less likely to fund clerical politicians. Whereas Iran’s bazaar merchants often suffered from Western competition, Egypt’s bazaar depends centrally on Western tourism. Secular parties, if we count the NDP, have an organizational advantage over the religious ones, since they have been freer to meet and act under Mubarak. It is not clear that the law banning religious parties will be changed, in which case the Brotherhood would again be stuck with running its candidates under other rubrics. And, Sunni Muslims don’t have a doctrine of owing implicit obedience to their clergy, and the clergy are not as important in Sunni religious life as the Shiite Ayatollahs are in Iran. The Muslim Brotherhood, a largely lay organization, has a lot of support, but it is not clear that they could gain more than about a third of seats even if they were able to run in free elections.

One of the sources of the Muslim Brotherhood’s popularity was its opposition to Mubarak, and it may actually lose followers without him around. Other religious politicians and entrepreneurs may proliferate, in a freer atmosphere, dividing the religious section of the electorate. And, the Brotherhood could well evolve to be more like Turkey’s Justice and Development [AK] Party than like its old, sectarian, underground self. There is nothing in MB ideology that forbids participation in parliamentary democracy, even though it was not exactly a big theme of its founder, Hasan al-Banna.

Some analysts read off support for the MB from Egyptians’ religiosity. Egyptians have been undergoing a religious revival in the past couple of decades. You have to think about them like southern evangelicals in the US. When I am in Egypt it reminds me a lot of South Carolina in that regard. But that people go to mosque, or that their women wear headscarves, or that they value religion, does not necessarily translate into them voting for a sectarian and somewhat cliquish group like the Muslim Brotherhood. Many pious Muslims are factory workers and so closer to April 6 than to the Brotherhood. Many women who wear headscarves do so to legitimate their entry into the modern labor force and appearance in the public sphere. National identity co-exists with the religious. Egyptians are also great nationalists, and many insist that the Egyptian nation is a framework within which Christian Copts are completely legitimate participants.

A recent Pew poll found that 59% of Egyptians favor democracy in almost all situations. And fully 60 percent are very or somewhat worried about the specter of religious extremism in their society. About 61% do not even think there is a struggle between modernizers and religion in Egypt.

Among the 31% who did see such a struggle, 59% favored religious forces and 21% favored the modernizers. Barry Rubin and Michael Totten misread this latter statistic to be true of all Egyptians. They are wrong. The statistic is not about Egyptians in general, but about the third of them who see a conflict between modernizers and religion. 59% of 31% is 18% of the whole Egyptian population who favor fundamentalists over modernizers. The rest either favor the modernizers or think it is a phony conflict. Not thinking that modernism and religiosity conflict is generally a liberal point of view.

It cannot be assumed that the Muslim Brotherhood is the future face of Egypt, and there is no reason to think it has the popularity or levers of power that would allow it to make a coup. The Brothers are more likely to gain further influence (as they already have since 2006) via parliamentary elections. I cannot, of course, know whether there will be new parliamentary elections in Egypt soon, whether the Muslim Brotherhood will be allowed to run, or how well, exactly, they will do. They would likely be far more influential in a democratic Egypt than they have been under Mubarak, but I cannot see what would make them hegemonic. They would want liquor to be banned throughout the country, e.g. which would be very bad for tourism, and a lot of Egyptians depend on tourism. Of course, social groups sometimes do go in directions that irrationally harm their economic interests. But the Cassandras have no proof that Egyptians will take that path.

Read the whole thing.

And follow Cole's Informed Comment daily.