Road to 270: Kentucky

Fivethirtyeight.com, the go-to-site for Electoral College and campaign analysis this year, turns its attention to Kentucky.

As noted at the outset, Barack Obama's advantage in partisan self-identification is deceptive. Particularly in rural areas and Eastern Kentucky, Obama was wiped off the map. Obama failed to win a single Democratic convention delegate in Kentucky's 5th district, the only district in the entire nation where that happened. One thing Obama does have going for him in Kentucky is the state is on the tougher end of economic times, ranking 10th in unemployment rate. As the economic crisis has helped tilt the race in Obama's favor, Kentucky would seem a place where Obama might close ground, even if it's not enough to win.

The analysis unfortunately beings with some unecessary stereotypes, but includes a fascinating demographic breakdown with stats I haven't seen anywhere else.

Read the whole thing.

Cross-posted at BlueGrassRoots.