Shorter Bunning: I'm Fucked
The great thing about private polls that candidates refuse to release is how they positively beg for wild-ass speculation.
Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY), who is in a public-standoff against a national party establishment that wants him to retire in 2010, has actually had an internal poll conducted for his re-election right.
But Bunning won't give any details, the Louisville Courier-Journal reports."Let's say I did the polling," Bunning said, which invited a follow-up question as to what the numbers were.
"That means it's none of your g--d--- business," Bunning replied with a laugh. "If you paid the 20-grand for the poll, you can get some information out of it."
While Bunning is fully senile enough to refuse to release the results of a poll that showed him 20 points up on every Democrat in the country, including President Obama, let's assume his staff is running the show and won't release the poll because the numbers are bad.
But not bad against probable Democratic opponents like Jack Conway or FSM forbid Dan Mongiardo.
I think the poll surveyed registered republicans about potential primary opponents, and I think it showed Jimbo couldn't win a primary at a Major League Baseball Old-Timers convention.
Without even checking with the infallible Nate Silver, I'm going to say the poll showed Bunning losing the republican primary to state senate president David Williams by 15 points, and to Secretary of State Trey Grayson by 20 points.
Possibly to disgraced former governor Ernie Fletcher by 10 points and even to three-time loser former Congresswoman Anne Northup by five points.
The Kentucky Democratic Party better stop debating which Democratic candidate has the best chance of beating Bunning and start worrying whether any Democratic candidate can beat Grayson or Williams.
Cross-posted at They Gave Us A Republic.
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5 comments:
Yellow Dog, here's one scenario it looks like you haven't contemplated which could very well give a Democrat the election: What if Bunning loses the primary, but stays in the race anyway? Or if the 2nd place Repug stays in the race and siphons votes off from the GOP-endorsed candidate? Given the way Repugs are fighting among themselves these days, there IS the possibility of a 3 way split come election time, with the Dem narrowly emerging as victor. Even a blue dog Dem would be better in a tight vote on some issues than a Repug...
Jack: You are absolutely right. If Bunning ran as an independent it would throw the race to the Democratic nominee.
Which is exactly why the repugs wil do anything to stop that scenario.
A three-person repug primary in 2007 prevented Anne Northup from beating incumbent criminal Ernie Fletcher, thus ensuring the election of democratic nominee Steve Beshear.
In the 2008 race for Mitch McConnell's seat, there was some speculation about a Libertarian candidate pulling votes away from Mitch and electing Lunsford. It never happened. Mitch is much more powerful, wealthy and organized than Bunning, but the bottom line next year will still be control of the Senate.
Kentucky republicans are, unlike their national counterparts, united and well-organized. Last year they won every single race without a dem incumbent.
Bunning running as an independent would be fabulous, but while not impossible, remains a fantasy.
Bunning is quite ill in the non compos mentis department, and it is not impossible that he might become even more so as we move toward November. But here's the flaw in your Repug-primary scenario: David Williams can only get elected in his current Senate district. He's not a statewide candidate. People in, for instance, Paducah will recognize him as the asshole he is, and either refrain from voting for him, or in certain cases will actually vote for his Dem opponent. I think Williams actually recognizes this fact, and will avoid running for statewide office.
But that's just my opinion. And I have NO idea what Trey Grayson would do. After all, he's already won two statewide races, and is not so keenly identified with one region or district of the state.
So - Williams has no chance statewide, which still leaves Grayson. Wonder what THAT will do to the Repug bigwigs?
Bunning is quite ill in the non compos mentis department, and it is not impossible that he might become even more so as we move toward November. But here's the flaw in your Repug-primary scenario: David Williams can only get elected in his current Senate district. He's not a statewide candidate. People in, for instance, Paducah will recognize him as the asshole he is, and either refrain from voting for him, or in certain cases will actually vote for his Dem opponent. I think Williams actually recognizes this fact, and will avoid running for statewide office.
But that's just my opinion. And I have NO idea what Trey Grayson would do. After all, he's already won two statewide races, and is not so keenly identified with one region or district of the state.
So - Williams has no chance statewide, which still leaves Grayson. Wonder what THAT will do to the Repug bigwigs?
Sorry about the duplicate posting.
Rich Miles
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