Thursday, April 24, 2014

Yet Still More Proof That "Swing Voters" Are A Myth And Only Inspiring Base Voters Works

If the enormous universe of defeated Democratic candidates who ran as repug-lites in order to attract swing voters but lost because that digusted the Democratic base voters who then stayed home (I'm looking at YOU, Ben Cowardly Worm Chandler), doesn't convince Alison Lundergan Grimes, then maybe this will:

I write from time to time about the myth of the independent voter, which goes something like this: there aren't any. Oh, lots of people say they're independent, but it turns out that most of them lean in one direction or another, and when Election Day rolls around the leaners vote just as reliably as stone partisans. True independents—the ones who switch between parties from election to election—make up only about 10 percent of the electorate.

Still, 10 percent is 10 percent. It's not quite nothing. But it turns out that it really is. Today, Lynne Vavreck breaks things down a bit further and explains just how these folks vote:
Only a small percentage of voters actually switched sides between 2008 and 2010. Moreover, there were almost as many John McCain voters who voted for a Democratic House candidate in 2010 as there were Obama voters who shifted the other way....On average, across districts, roughly 6 percent of Obama voters switched and just under 6 percent of McCain voters switched.
So, yes, there are some true switchers. But mostly they're going to cancel each other out. The net result from a huge push for swing voters is likely to be no more than 2 or 3 percentage points. In a few high-stakes states in a presidential election, that might make them worth going after. But in your average congressional election, it's a waste of time and money. So what does make the difference?
IT'S THE TURNOUT, STUPID (as Kevin explains.)

At this point, candidates who don't yet get that pandering to repugs does not inspire Democratic voters to stampede to the polls for them are just too fucking stupid - or conservative - to vote for, anyway.

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