What Happened in Virginia - and How to Prevent The Same Disaster in Kentucky

At Firedoglake, Ben Tribbett offers details to back up what I posted yesterday about the Lessons of Virginia.

For those of you following the 2009 elections, I don’t have to tell you that Virginia–one year after voting Democratic for President for the first time since 1964–is about to sweep our most conservative Republican ticket in history to victory today. What you might find useful though is why–and how you can prevent something similar from happening in your state in 2010.

SNIP

The strongest groups for Democrats in 2008 were voters under the age of 30 and minority voters. Also known as the two groups whose participation historically falls in midterm elections. In Virginia this year, one poll showed the percentage of the likely electorate under the age of 30 falling 70% from 2008–and the African American share of the vote falling 39% from 2008! That’s why virtually every poll has shown today’s likely electorate as having voted for John McCain by double digits over Barack Obama in Virginia last year–despite Virginia having voted almost exactly the reverse.

Unfortunately for us, the Deeds campaign freaked out and read these polls wrong over the summer. Instead of attempting to energize more young and minority voters to the polls to make the electorate more representative of Virginia–they began running a campaign targeted to the people already planning to vote. Creigh began bashing federal Democratic priorities like “Cap and Trade” and health care reform to appeal to the conservatives that were headed to the polls.

And every time he did it, polls indicated turnout shriveled even further among Democrats and progressive voters–making the electorate even older, whiter, and more conservative. To which Creigh responded to by bashing federal Democrats more–which resulted in even more progressives becoming disengaged. Over and over, the cycle continued. Over the last six weeks, PPP polls indicated the share of the electorate that identified as Democrats declined from 38% to 31%. In other words almost one out of every five self-identified Democrats planning to vote on Labor Day has since then looked at Creigh Deeds and his conservative message, and decided they weren’t voting. Ouch!

SNIP

The lesson for candidates in 2010 is clear: do not depress your base when our electorate is already far less likely to vote than Republicans to begin with.

Successful candidates in 2010 will find a way to engage young voters and minority voters so they come back to the polls–and AFTER they do that, work on winning over enough Independents to win.

If this election serves as a reminder that pandering to right wingers is not a successful electoral strategy, then Creigh Deeds will have done even more good for Democrats than if he had won the Governorship today.

Read the whole thing.

Are you listening, Ben Chandler?

Every step to the right loses you Democratic votes.

Every rejection of liberal values loses you Democratic votes.

Every slap at President Obama loses you Democratic votes.

And in the face of a credible republican opponent raising money fast, nothing you can do or say will gain you a single republican vote.

You run as a Real Democrat, or you lose. Your choice.