Blue Dogs Won't Survive 2010

If Senate candidate Jack Conway wants to defy the traditional mid-term success of the opposition party in Congress next year, he'll stop playing Blue Dog and look to his left.

The loss of Democratic seats in Congress that is likely next year will strengthen, rather than undermine, 2008's historic political realignment. Voters are going to punish Democrats, all right, but they're going to punish the Democrats who have been standing in the way of radical health care reform.

Steve Benen writes How to Avoid an Electoral Catastrophe.

... for all the talk about 1994 redux, there are several reasons -- regional realignment, retirements -- that won't exist in 2010.

Not surprisingly, the result of the fight over health care reform will make a very big difference, and if Dem strategists are thinking about how to improve their chances, the reform fight offers a pretty big hint. Three words: motivate the base.

For all the talk in the Senate about scaling back reform, making the bill weaker, less effective, and less generous to middle class families, there's ample evidence that will only make matters far worse for Democratic candidates 14 months from now. Motivated conservatives will be furious either way, because even trying to bring about some reform has been deemed outrageous. The question is whether lawmakers will give progressive voters an incentive to head to the polls.

(Ezra Klein writes:)

The political danger is not just that a failure on health-care reform will anger the electorate. It will also change the composition of the electorate. Dispirited Democrats will stay home. Energized Republicans will press their advantage. Add in that the wave of young voters who were energized by Obama's campaign probably aren't going to turn out for the midterm election anyway, and you're looking at a pretty
unfriendly landscape.

That's why the midterms are dangerous for Democrats. Losing on health care and collapsing into recriminations and internal divisions pretty much guarantees that Democratic voters of all sorts are turned off. You don't just win elections by being popular. You win elections by making sure that the people who like you turn out to vote.

Voters who may be inclined to vote Democratic will need a reason.
Policymakers need to give them one.

Read the whole thing.