Stop Negotiating and Start Running for the Fiscal Molehill

Don't be fooled by the apparent collapse of the House repugs yesterday - they'll be back next week, even meaner and stubborner for having been made to look like fools.

And so will President Obama, more eager than ever to get a deal - any deal, even one that destroys Social Security and Medicare - before Dec. 31.

As Karoli at Crooks and Liars wrote earlier this week: 

All anyone has to do is start with what we know: Republicans do not negotiate in good faith ever, and they only negotiate at all when they are pressed to the wall. Therefore, we can all assume this is a lot of smoke with lots of mirrors and absolutely no sincerity.

I am of the belief that absolute clarity is needed in order to get this done in an orderly fashion. That means no muddling up the issues. It is absolutely driving me crazy to see the narrative driven by media that Medicare, Social Security, tax reform and the debt ceiling MUST be wrapped up in a tiny little neat package by December 31st.

No. Nothing need be wrapped up by December 31st. Absolutely nothing. I've heard arguments for why they should be, and so I'll take them one by one:

• Unemployment extensions expire 12/29: These are urgent. I am not minimizing that. But they are separate from any discussion about tax reform, tax rates, and tax cuts. There is no relationship between them and they should be addressed separately from the other issues. If the extensions are renewed in the first weeks of January, it will not do harm to recipients, and can retroactively be corrected.
• But the debt ceiling. ZOMG, the debt ceiling: President Obama needs to have us clamoring and echoing him on this: the debt ceiling is UNRELATED to the tax revenue question now and forevermore, and we should be prepared to have Republicans shut down government over it. Let them take the hit for their folly. Never before 2011 was the debt ceiling a serious hostage, and it shouldn't be one now.
• More stimulus! - The stimulus package the President is suggesting won't even cover Hurricane Sandy relief, which the sick GOP cheapos in Congress have already delayed and dithered about for weeks now. Seriously. President Obama is asking for $56 billion in stimulus. Sandy relief is expected to cost around $60 billion. It's just math.
• Better a Democrat shore up Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, right? Sure. But certainly not in the name of deficit reduction or tax reform. Again, these are issues that are being intentionally smashed together to muddy up what is a simple, straightforward process.
• The payroll tax expires! Uh oh. Good. It should expire. It was always dangerous territory. If they want to extend it, they can extend it in the form of a refundable tax credit for 2013, which doesn't cause money from the General Fund to be transferred to the Social Security trust fund. Withholding can be adjusted to account for the credit, and the economy will be saved from ruin.

The only time Republicans care about the deficit is when they are not in the White House. This is a game, an act, an obscene dance of political gamesmanship, but it is NOT a negotiation.

What we should be doing:

• Ignore the Villagers' hand-wringing
• Stop accepting what they say as truth.
• Stop reacting to everything.
• Start saying out loud that the only thing that should happen before January 1st is an up or down vote in the House on the Senate extension of middle class tax cuts.
• Stomp your feet, call your Congressman, shout it out: ONLY an up or down vote on the middle class tax cuts is warranted, and that means one vote on the Senate bill, not some stupidly crafted package of nonsensical, arcane, ridiculously meaningless "cuts".

Ten days ago we were winning this by not budging at all. Yes, President Obama, that means YOU too. Now suddenly we're engaging in the farce Republicans call "negotiations?" Give me a break. This has been an exercise in how to turn media narratives around for the Republicans' benefit, but it is nothing like a negotiation.

If we really want to win, we simply stop acknowledging all of the stupid GOP party trial balloons floating around us and start pushing for one vote. One vote before December 31st. Just one. No amendments, no extras. One vote on the Senate bill to extend the middle class tax cuts.

Then make them sit at OUR table next year, when the upper rates are set and not going back down. That's how it's done. Our way, not theirs

I would go even further. Tax hikes on all income over $250,000, but NO spending cuts on domestic programs.  We don't need to pay for tax hikes - they will make a huge dent in the deficit all by themselves.  Not that we need to reduce the deficit at all.  And even if we did need spending cuts, take them out of the obscenely bloated military budget, starting with the boondoggle to end (not that it will) all boondoggles: the F-35 StupidPlane, continuing on through contracts with Halliburton, KBR and Blackwater, which has probably changed its name again already, right up through cancelling every fucking dime going to Israel until they tear down every West Bank settlement.

David Dayen at Firedoglake has more on the consequences of stepping over the fiscal molehill, and David Atkins explains how the repugs just proved you can't negotiate with nihilists.