You'll Like Kentucky Better When You Get to Know Us

Good news! Kentucky finally ranks in the top ten of states in something positive! It's an opinion poll, not something statistical like health, education or economic success, but we'll take it.

Ed Kilgore at Political Animal:

Public Policy Polling, as is its habit, has a cool, unconventional poll up on its site right now, measuring the favorable/unfavorable ratios of the 50 American states.

Overall, it shows (in order) Hawaii, Colorado, Tennessee, South Dakota, and Virginia on top, and (in reverse order) California, Illinois, New Jersey, Mississippi and Utah at the bottom. The last five states are the only ones with net negative ratios (though Louisiana is close with a tie).

I have to say, some of these findings are surprising. Certainly Hawaii and Colorado are popular tourism destinations, but so, too, are California (dead last) and Utah, and sixth-from-the-bottom Louisiana. I have no clue why South Dakota ranks so high, unless Mount Rushmore is way cooler than I’ve imagined and Americans really like extreme weather.

You have to wonder, of course, what respondents think of when they are asked their opinion of a particular state. Is it a specific city they might have visited? A historic event that happened there? A cultural stereotype? A political association? Is South Carolina (ranked 31st) “about” Charleston, Spartanburg, or Ft. Sumter? When people think of “California,” is it “about” Bakersfield or Berkeley (two places about as different as Seattle and Sylacauga)? (For that matter, Monterey and Salinas, separated by just 17 miles across the Lettuce Curtain, are vastly different in demography, culture, politics, economics, and often even weather). Is California Ronald Reagan or Jerry Brown? Hollywood or Redwoods? Summer of Love or Winter of Perpetual Political Discontent?

You can wander around PPP’s crosstabs from this survey for many hours, but the factor that does jump out is political ideology. California’s dismal ranking is basically driven by its heavily negative ratings from people self-identifying as “very conservative” (10/74) and “somewhat conservative” (12/65). Texas, ranking 38th, draws ratings nearly that dismal from self-identified liberals (22/56 among “very liberal” folk, and 17/59 among “somewhat liberal” respondents), but that’s offset by the ecstatic opinion of the Lone Star State among conservatives (62/9 for the “somewhat conservative;” 68/7 for the “very conservative”). Basically, conservatives love TX and hate CA more intensely than liberals feel about either.

Kentucky ranks ninth. Only one of our seven state neighbors has a higher favorability rating: Tennessee. (Really, people? Have you been to Tennessee?)

42 percent have a favorable opinion of Kentucky, but only 17 percent have an unfavorable opinion. 41 percent are unsure.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, 55 percent of very conservative respondents and 51 percent of somewhat conservative respondents had favorable opinions of Kentucky. But 42 percent of liberals were unsure about Kentucky - more than the 28 percent who hold unfavorable opinions and the 30 percent who hold favorable opinions.

Women and men have similar opinions of Kentucky: 42 percent of women and 43 percent of men favorable, 14 percent of women and 18 percent of men unfavorable, 44 percent of women and 39 percent of men unfavorable.

Party-affiliated opinions follow political-affiliated opinions: 38 percent of Democrats and 59 percent of republicans hold favorable opinions of Kentucky; 21 percent and nine percent unfavorable, and 40 percent and 38 percent are not sure. Independents are 34, 20 and 40 percent.

The racial group with the highest opinion of Kentucky is not whites but Hispanics, with 54 percent favorable. That's just a point short of very conservative favorability. That could be because Kentucky has a large and growing Hispanic immigrant population that is tolerated even by conservatards because legal or otherwise the state's agriculture - and its economy - depends on them. Hispanic unfavorable opinion of Kentucky is half that of whites: 8 percent to 16 percent.

African-Americans are 24 percent favorable, 27 percent unfavorable (largest among racial groups) and 49 percent unsure. That may reflect both Kentucky's small black population (around seven percent) and that although a slave state, Kentucky never seceded from the Union during the Civil War.

Another surprise: the age group with the highest favorability toward Kentucky is young people, 18 to 29, with 50 percent. That is strange, given that Kentucky skews older and is selling itself as a retirement destination. Maybe not so strange, given that younger people also have the highest unfavorability toward Kentucky: 20 percent among the 18-29 age group and 21 percent among the 30-49 age group.

Here's the bottom line: "Not Sure" about Kentucky beats "Unfavorable" across the board. "Not Sure" beats "Favorable" in many groups.

That means Kentucky has work to do. Not just getting the word out about how fabulous we are in natural beauty and natural friendliness, but also working to improve ourselves in ways that appeal to liberals. Demographics is destiny, baby, and conservatives are disappearing by the day.