Primary Predictions

Polls open in Kentucky at 6 a.m. Weather prediction is for rain on and off throughout the day. For what it's worth, here are my predictions for Republican and Democratic primaries for Jim Bunning's U.S. Senate seat:

Ayn Rand Paul crushing Trey Grayson isn't a prediction; it's a cliche. But I'll venture that he'll win by less than his current 18-point lead in the polls. I think Kentucky republicans are going to have a come-to-Mitch moment in the voting booth and go with the known quantity. Not enough to give Trey the win, but enough to deny Paul a double-digit landslide. Paul by 9.

Bottom line on Mongiardo-Conway: Mangy is just not likeable. He's creepy. And his child bride is even creepier. I think Ally actually pushes people toward Conway. Jack has all the momentum. But he'll have to rack up huge numbers in the Golden Triangle (Lexington, Louisville and NKY) to counter Mangy's lead in Eastern KY and the infamously conservative West. Remember, Western KY polls stay open an hour later than Central and Eastern polls, so don't look for numbers before 7 p.m. eastern time. This one is going to be a squeaker, and don't be surprised if the decisive factor is Western KY icon Wendell Ford. Keep an eye on the Daviess County numbers. Conway by half a percentage point.

Half a percentage point. There are about 1.6 million registered Democrats in Kentucky. If half of them vote tomorrow (and 50 percent turnout would be a record for a primary), that's 800,000 votes cast. One half of one percent of 800,000 is 4,000. Four thousand votes - and likely far fewer - could be the difference between Senator Jack Conway and Senator Rand Paul. I'm sorry, but that's too few to spend even one vote on Maurice Sweeney or Darlene Price. Remember Florida 2000.

Cross-posted at They Gave Us A Republic ....