Just Hold Your Nose and Vote For Conway

Well, shit. Now I have to vote for Conway. Media Czech has it:

This thing is dead even and anyone's game:

Mongiardo- 39%
Conway- 38%
Other- 13%
Undecided- 12%

Who wants it more? Who's got the ground game? Who's got the most air time in the last week? This could go either way...

MC on the cross-tabs:

So Mongiardo is taking men, old folks, conservatives and pro-lifers, as well as the religious, less wealthy and less educated.

Conway is taking women, young folks, liberals and pro-choicers, as well as the less religious, more wealthy and more educated.

Finally, this poll seems to reflect reality in terms of Mongiardo getting conservative support and Conway getting liberal support.

I say it comes down to performance in Lexington.

And with some anti-Mangy spin-busting:

Now that, my friends, is a trend. Conway has jumped 20 points in the last two months among moderates as well. Conservatives flipped to Mongiardo in tonight's poll, but does this seem like an election where conservatives come out in droves?

I'd say that this looks like Conway is going to surge across the finish line up by around 5, but we must also remember that Mongiardo has put much more effort into his ground game than Conway. Is his ground game 5 points better, though?

Grab the popcorn Tuesday night, kiddies. And coffee... we may not know the outcome until very, very late.

Read the whole thing.

I haven't changed my mind about Conway: he's a coal-loving, freakazoid-fellating, health-care-reform-latecoming Blue Dog.

But Dan Mongiardo is a wingnut freakazoid repug who would be Traitor Joe Lieberman's new BFF - if he had a chance in hell of beating Rand Paul, which he doesn't.

So, as attractive as I find the idea of a Senator Rand Paul who would make Mitch McConnell's head explode several times every day, with the polls this close I have to go with a Senator Jack Conway who would at least occasionally vote with actual Democrats.