A Last-Minute Winning Strategy for Democratic Candidates

12 freshman democratic representatives are in big trouble according to polls - might that be because they're running as repug-lite against real repugs?

Or because they thought voting for the inhumanly anti-choice health care bill would impress the misogynist freakazoids?

Only Democrats who run as Democrats are going to win November 2, and here's how to do it:

Democracy Corps has released a new analysis (pdf) of their recent polling which suggests that the environment is shifting a bit and the Democrats have a chance to stop the bleeding if they make certain changes in their message. It's happened before:

This is not a fool’s errand. In the 1998 election, we conducted national polls starting in September to see if Democrats could push back against the Republican overreach on Ken Starr and impeachment, as Democrats faced the prospect of historic losses in both the House and Sen-ate. Only two weeks before the election did the plates shift and a Democratic counter-message on impeachment became effective in our polls. In the end, Democrats lost no net seats in Senate, gained five House seats and Newt Gingrich resigned.

Take it for what it's worth, but it turns out that what they believe works is the strong populist message the whining, half-empty DFHs have been pushing for the past year:

The strongest message is set out in the box below. The Democrat is the one who wants to change Washington so it is not run by corporate lobbyists and Wall Street, but works for the middle class. He or she supports tax cuts for middle class and small business and new American industries, while the Republican has pledged to maintain tax cuts for the top 2 percent and protect the right to export American jobs.

We have to change Washington. That means eliminating the special deals and tax breaks won by corporate lobbyists for the oil companies and Wall Street. (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) has pledged to protect the tax cuts for the top two per-cent and the big tax breaks for companies who export American jobs. I'll take a different approach with new middle class tax cuts to help small businesses and new American industries create jobs. Let's make our country work for the middle class.

This message is quite powerful with the ‘winnable’ voters Democrats need to get to expand their support; also with white unmarried women and whites under 40 years. These last two groups were critical to the new Democratic base of 2006 and 2008 – but support has lagged. But they seem ready to move.

There's lots more. Read the whole thing.