If The New Republic is optimistic, should we all despair?

I'm not a fan of the Blue Dog apologists masquerading as liberals at not-even-remotely-close-to-liberal The New Republic, but both Josh Marshall and Kevin Drum agree that Jon Cohn's piece in TNR provides the factual backup for the general gut feeling they have that health care is more, not less, likely to pass this fall.

Jon Cohn assesses the state of play of healthcare reform over at TNR, and he's on pretty much the same page as me: August didn't kill it; Democrats are finally facing the reality that they can't count on any Republican votes; reconciliation is now a serious threat; and Dems fully understand that failing to pass something would be calamitous. So he's cautiously optimistic. The difference is that his version of this is based on real expertise and extensive reporting, not just a gut feel.

The point Cohn avoids, of course, is that "reform" that lacks a strong public option and is therefore just a zillion-dollar windfall for the health insurers is worse than nothing at all. But it's a good look at the economy-destroying compromise we're going to get if we don't scream bloody fucking murder.